The budget will help young homebuyers — but it won't fix affordability.

Zabar's analysis cuts to the heart of what the housing debate keeps missing. In 1999, the median Australian house price was around four times average full-time earnings. Today, that ratio sits somewhere between eight and ten times — and for many workers, it is worse.

The government aims to slow the rate of house price growth with its proposed tax reforms. But slowing growth is not the same as affordability. And the affordability conversation in Australia consistently makes one critical assumption−there are two incomes in the household.

There are now more than three million people living alone in Australia. They cannot combine incomes. They cannot split a mortgage. The pathway into the housing market was not designed for them, and the budget does not change that.

The disparity is sharper still for Australians working in hospitality, care, or retail who earn just above the minimum wage−around$52,000 a year before tax. For them, the gap between earnings and house prices is not a policy challenge. It is a closed door.

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